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  10-Dec-12, 19:47   #1
Variance and Bad Beats 0 
matiih17 

Joined: Dec '11
Location: Argentina
Age: 23 (M)
Posts: 22
Many people believe that poker is a game of luck, but it really is a game of skill in which if you take the right decisions in every situation, you will succeed in the long term.

In short, if you play online poker better than your opponents, earn over time. Luck can play a major role in the short term, however it is something that we have some control. Even making the right decisions can lose just because of bad luck.

The key is to learn to handle these situations and make sure they do not have a negative effect on your game.

The 'Bad Beat'

Many inexperienced players complain that they have suffered a 'bad beat', when in fact what happened was that they were beaten by a marginally weaker hand than theirs.

A 'bad beat' genuine is when a hand that is clearly favorite is beaten by another hand that had very little chance to improve to get some of the cards needed.

Interestingly, players often remember the 'bad beats' to situations where luck was on his side.

It is also a standard error to believe that most are 'bad beats' online than live, which is not true.

Statistically speaking, they occur with the same frequency regardless of whether you play online or in a casino, but due to the number of hands per hour that are played online, the possibility that a player suffers 'bad beats' (or creates suffering them) are inevitably increase.

The way to overcome a 'bad beat' is to remember that you'll make more money from your opponents in the long run if they keep playing poorly. Rather than fight, exploiting their weaknesses to maximize your winnings.

The laws of mathematical probability and show that a player in online poker at bwin.com continue putting all his chips at risk with the worst hand will lose in the long term, which means that this is the type of player you want at your table.

This is the reason that the writer of Matthew Hilger poker strategy says that "bad beats are good friends of poker players" (2004)

     
  10-Dec-12, 20:33   #2
  0 
lukasb 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Croatia
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 1735
If this is copy-pasted material i see a bad ban coming your way very soon m8 Angry

     
  11-Dec-12, 08:49   #3
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8623
it may be copied- or it may be that we have another author on our community (though not as acclaimed as Ronin Harper). though i have one tip for future posting if this is indeed your own content: keep the posts shorter- if you have a lot to say, split the posts into parts (part I, part II etc.) cause it's really boring to read long posts

     
  11-Dec-12, 08:59   #4
  0 
thefly131 
Joined: Jun '10
Location: Belgium
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 1342
Let s say if this is not a copy of.....

Then matihh has some real literal talent, a great vacabulary for a foreign language (I suppose Spanish will be his mothertongue as he s living in Argentina)

But to the point of bad beats.. they happen to everyone but also take in account the hands you won when you were actually behind after flop or after the turn.
So you have also lucky wins.

     
  11-Dec-12, 11:42   #5
  0 
Serpang 
Joined: Jan '10
Location: Indonesia
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 1476
I think no problem with copy paste, he didn't sell this article or claim it's written by him Smile he just distribute the article from....on line article ( has copy right ? ) if not it's legal Smile
We should thank to him, write so many words, lol.

     
  11-Dec-12, 11:57   #6
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by lukasb:
If this is copy-pasted material i see a bad ban coming your way very soon m8 Angry


To be fair, he cited the author at the end.

     
  11-Dec-12, 12:30   #7
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
It is copy pasted from "foursfull"; just google some of the lines, and you'll see the exact same phrases come up; e.g. "also a standard error to believe that most are 'bad beats' online".

You need an account to view it though. I feel that you should add quotes and source to content that is not your own; maybe if you add a question, or ask for opinions, I would not find it too objectionable, that it's not your own...

Edited by marqis (Tuesday, December 11, 2012 @ 12:34 GMT)


     
  11-Dec-12, 12:36   #8
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by marqis:
I feel that you should add quotes and source to content that is not your own; maybe if you add a question, or ask for opinions, I would not find it too objectionable, that it's not your own...


Yes exactly - it would be a lot better if the article was quote and framed within a context.. There's nothing wrong with citing someone else's material to address your own opinion or questions - but it's a bit pointless just copying an entire article / post verbatim and not adding anything to it.

     
  11-Dec-12, 13:15   #9
  0 
lukasb 

Joined: Mar '11
Location: Croatia
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 1735
Posted by jessthehuman:
Posted by lukasb:
If this is copy-pasted material i see a bad ban coming your way very soon m8 Angry


To be fair, he cited the author at the end.

did he?

     
  11-Dec-12, 16:46   #10
  0 
uhhcallmi 

Joined: Mar '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 587
no comment Confused

     
  11-Dec-12, 19:41   #11
  0 
Weenie 
Joined: Aug '12
Location: Slovakia
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 677
Poker is MAINLY game about your skill. But sometimes its still just cardgame. Especially play preflop, there are many situations in tournaments when you are just trying your luck with allinpreflop whenyou are shortstack etc... You cant influent what card will come on board you know.. But you can decrease this factor to minimum with your good play..

     
  11-Dec-12, 21:54   #12
  0 
jessthehuman 

Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 6441
Posted by lukasb:
Posted by jessthehuman:
Posted by lukasb:
If this is copy-pasted material i see a bad ban coming your way very soon m8 Angry


To be fair, he cited the author at the end.

did he?


Either that, or the actual author of the article cited somebody else within the article, it's hard to say which. But definitely somebody is cited, at the very end..

     
  11-Dec-12, 22:47   #13
  0 
Greenmohave 

Joined: Jan '11
Location: United States
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 3361
I'm going to have to agree with pochui here! I start to read this and become bored with it because it's like reading from a book. I'd rather read real situations or experiences which consist of shorter to the point material.
That's why I rarely reply to posts that show hand history. It's to lengthy and boring for me to even want to read so I rarely do.

     
  12-Dec-12, 01:28   #14
  0 
GIOMi6 

Joined: Feb '10
Location: Suriname
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 1189
don't be so harsh on the poor fellow, he is just trying to fit in this awesome poker community my fellow bankrollmob members. Blink

     
  12-Dec-12, 03:26   #15
  0 
uhhcallmi 

Joined: Mar '12
Location: Netherlands
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 587
worst day ever,,, they realy got me steaming today...

think it was donkey-day at pokerstars today...

won several sng's today... still losing money

started new session after 21.00 hours...i only meet sick people playing all craphands you can imagine...
reach 2 final tables in 90 player knock out,,,as chipleader....then the pokergods or the software ,how you wanna call it,,decides i have to lose every monster i play...

and bust out 7th or 8th place...this is unreal..

trust me ,if i read all the pokerbooks in the world ,it will not help me against these badbeat players...they play poker to win with only bad beats,,,not with skill or good cards

at this point i am not disappointed,, i am maximum pissed off .

shut down the client...cursed pokergods...and came here to write this anger off me...

but it still does not help...this is unreal

7-2 , 2-10, 8-Q ,4-5 not even suited, lost to these hands holding A-high kicker and a dozens more of these similar situations ...with J-J lost all hands,always ran into Q-Q K-K or even A-A ...this is coíncidence ???

if it is ,this was one of my worst days online...i thought this kind of bad luck would not happen
any more or not in such rude manner...


If i am dominated pre or post flop i don't care losing a hand or even a few hands...credit to the player with the better hand...but today was kill cardraiser72 day i guess..

every time i'm a few dollars up,, i lose it in the next 2 tournaments i play..then i go sng single table,make some profit again, then i go multi or mtt ,,1rst hand out with A-K

just to get me break even again...

did i had to stop playing today,,when i had a bad feeling,,?? that i may not win money today
besides fpp's?

all those final tables i did not go all-inn pre-flop but after i see i have top pair ,,still i get rivered

ah ,almost forgot,, ran into A-A in 2 hands in a row...bye bye chips..


So i would like to say '' 6-21-3-11 --25-15-21'' pokerstars ( numbers are cryptic)

Thumbs Down Thumbs Down Thumbs Down Thumbs Down Thumbs Down Thumbs Down Thumbs Down

------------
now let's see,,, now in ffp qualifier..already holding 33,5 k chips after 2 hands...

i enter late reg. 1rst hand A-K seond hand A-A won em both...maybe wind has turned, although
i doubt it..

i will post the next bad beat over here...gonna be the same as i discribed above...already know it..
will not tilt ,,just continue my A-game ,see what happens...

Edited by uhhcallmi (Wednesday, December 12, 2012 @ 03:34 GMT)


     
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