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What would you have done?
 

  30-Apr-13, 12:23   #1
What would you do? 0 
sadamman 

Joined: Jan '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1204
On FT yesterday i played the 55c + 1r +1a Irish NL holdem. I had never played it before but played amazing. For those of you who have never played it, its like a mix of hold em and omaha. You have 4 cards at the beginning but have to discard two of them after the flop. It can make for some interesting and tough decisions. I think I ran into about the toughest spot possible and would love to hear what you guys would do, and then i will tell you what actually happened....

I'm joint shortstack on the button with the other shortstack on the bb, with blinds 800/1600 and us both on roughly 30k chips. I have j Club, 10 Heart, q Spade, 9 Spade , I min raise, BB calls. Flop comes 2 Club , j Spade, 10 Spade, shortstack raises half of his remaining stack. I go all in obviously. But what cards do you discard?

Edited by sadamman (Tuesday, April 30, 2013 @ 12:24 GMT)


     
  30-Apr-13, 12:29   #2
  0 
AlexSimion 
Joined: Mar '12
Location: Romania
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 640
Damn Big Smile...that's tough, I think it's more of a coin flip .... my personal opinion would be to hold the J 10 , and that's because I don't have much luck chasing flush and straight draws....but who knows..... I think u chose the Q 9 and won with it Big Smile.

     
  30-Apr-13, 12:40   #3
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
I think you discard j 10 tho I haven't done the math. Although this gives you nothing sometimes drawing hands are in front. For your opponent to call there is a strong chance of them having trips which puts two pair in a bad position but folding two of the board pairs takes away outs for those who want the board to pair. You are guaranteed to be live with the flush draw and straight draw tho kq or higher flush draw would certainly cut your odds.

     
  30-Apr-13, 13:26   #4
  0 
SuperNoob 

Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 4873
from his bet i presume he has set / overpair/ same/weaker 2 pair/ high pair / higher flush draw/ higher oesd
dnt thhink he will commit with weaker draws/under pair here
i wud discard q9 here cos u r ahead with j 10 in all situations except him having set
with q9 u will be almost flipping in all situations except him having straight draw or weaker flush draw
had a similar situation in past in omaha and lost to ace high flush

edit - poll?



Edited by SuperNoob (Tuesday, April 30, 2013 @ 13:32 GMT)


     
  30-Apr-13, 13:28   #5
  0 
erru9107 
Joined: Oct '11
Location: Sweden
Age: 25 (M)
Posts: 910
I'm not sure what to do really... If you discard JT you would have about a 60% chance of hitting a straight/flush/straight flush but you currently have nothing. On the other hand, if you discard Q9 you would have a two pair with about a 16% chance of hitting a full house.

Considering that he didn't go all-in, he might have AJ or something similar and trying to lure you in. It would also be possible that he has a flush draw as well WITH the ace meaning that he has an edge over you unless an 8 or K comes which is about a 32% chance.

I probably would discard Q9 here. The JT is at least a made hand and gives you the better odds since there are so many cards dealt in one hand, the odds of hitting that flush or straight is probably even less then I stated since I calculated it by using a roughly accurate Hold'em calculation.

     
  30-Apr-13, 14:01   #6
  0 
sadamman 

Joined: Jan '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1204
Might as well tell you what happened while I'm on the break on the tourney I'm in at the moment. ..

I thought basically everything everyone said here. I think what made it so hard is, I knew with this hand, I would have ended up with the winning cards, if i still had 4 at the end, and didn't wanna discard the wrong two. I timed down quite a bit. Resisted the urge to keep q9 Spade and kept j10. He had j2. The turn was a 10...Not even a sweat in the end. Blink I also wouldn't have hit the q9 Spade Cool

I went on to final table but finished 9th. I had done the r+a so didn't make much. Roughly a double up. Disagree

     
  30-Apr-13, 14:04   #7
  0 
rafiko1 

Joined: May '12
Location: Belgium
Age: 24 (M)
Posts: 275
Really tough decision.
And this is the reason I prefer Omaha more than Hold'em.
With Omaha, you can have multiple draws and made hands as well. You can basically control your game and with less luck.
On Hold'em, in the other hand, you still can control your luck but with less extent.
And I'm in love with Omaha Hi/Lo which in that point is even better.

Against a fish - you have the low covered and hope to go for a high Blink

------------
The wisest decision is to keep the J 10, because as other have said - you have made your hand.
If he has a flush draw then he has already 2 less outs minimum because of ur Q9.

I think with that decision it all comes to the player - if he is tight / agressive / loose...
You can see replays of other hands where he was involved.

Eventually he had J2, so he probably was playing agressive even before it.

Good luck on the next one Smile

Edited by rafiko1 (Tuesday, April 30, 2013 @ 14:10 GMT)


     
  1-May-13, 10:45   #8
  0 
pochui 

Joined: May '08
Location: Lithuania
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 8648
decisions decisions...i bought a crystal ball (made in china. cost $0.99 @sale), so i don't have any headaches anymore.

back to business: been in those situations quite a lot, really the key thing here is that you don't chase nut flush, so even if u hit you might lose (just as SuperNoob pointed out Thumbs Up).
keeping j10 is mathematically correct in this situation (shhhh don't tell no one that i had 2 from math- i just pretend that i know the percentages)


     
  1-May-13, 11:33   #9
  0 
mahdrof 

Joined: Nov '09
Location: Canada
Age: 47 (M)
Posts: 2367
Posted by SuperNoob:
from his bet i presume he has set / overpair/ same/weaker 2 pair/ high pair / higher flush draw/ higher oesd
dnt thhink he will commit with weaker draws/under pair here
i wud discard q9 here cos u r ahead with j 10 in all situations except him having set
with q9 u will be almost flipping in all situations except him having straight draw or weaker flush draw
had a similar situation in past in omaha and lost to ace high flush

edit - poll?






Well, well - welcome back stranger!

     
  1-May-13, 16:50   #10
  0 
SuperNoob 

Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 4873
Posted by mahdrof:

Well, well - welcome back stranger!

haha was only a matter of time




     
  2-May-13, 12:12   #11
  0 
jovicakralj 

Joined: Nov '10
Location: Serbia
Age: 29 (M)
Posts: 2075
I would go with Q9 Spade You will have hard time defending J10 on later streets and with Q9 Spade in that situation youre fliping with set. So if you have best hand with J10 you will not make many chips while with Q9 you will make bunch of them if you hit...

------------
Oh just saw youre all in...
Its 50% 50% then, but still, I would go with Q9 Spade since you will never be behind with that hand no matter what he have...

     
  2-May-13, 13:08   #12
  0 
sadamman 

Joined: Jan '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1204
Posted by jovicakralj:
I would go with Q9 Spade You will have hard time defending J10 on later streets and with Q9 Spade in that situation youre fliping with set. So if you have best hand with J10 you will not make many chips while with Q9 you will make bunch of them if you hit...

------------
Oh just saw youre all in...
Its 50% 50% then, but still, I would go with Q9 Spade since you will never be behind with that hand no matter what he have...


Interesting you say that because even though I kept j10 and went on to win the hand. Even though i folded q9 Spade I had the feeling it is best percentage wise. Slightly. (If you don't know what he has anyway). I think there is not actually a right decision here, thats why i posted it. I couldn't blame anyone for choosing either. I just think its interesting when you all say your bit. Thumbs Up

     
  2-May-13, 13:29   #13
  0 
awood88 
Joined: Feb '08
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 28 (M)
Posts: 1881
Posted by sadamman:
I think what made it so hard is, I knew with this hand, I would have ended up with the winning cards, if i still had 4 at the end, and didn't wanna discard the wrong two. I timed down quite a bit. Resisted the urge to keep q9 Spade and kept j10. He had j2. The turn was a 10...Not even a sweat in the end. Blink I also wouldn't have hit the q9 Spade Cool


Interestingly I think a lower two pair would have been the best case scenario for either hand. Although you would have missed if you kept Q9, considering you were definitely folding one card for their higher pair surely you would be happy to see J2 or 10 2.

On the other hand and this is why I still maintain Q9 would have been the slightly better option, if they showed trip tens or jacks you would be a lot happier with Q9 and I daresay you would be favourite to win the hand, though I haven't done the math.

The worst case scenario for you having kept Q9 would be against a higher flush draw with the king though you would still be live to an 8. Still I think this would be a lot rarer than two pair, an over pair or trips, the sum of which you would be better off with Q9. Even against trips 2s you only have 4 outs, whereas with an over pair he has 5 outs against J10 not including the river pairing the turn.

Obviously you would be better off with J10 against J2 but Q9 wouldn't be so bad either. Whereas AsKs would be a bad hand to see with either Q9 or J10 though you would prefer to have the latter and be in a race. I think considering all the possible hands Q9 would have been the best overall. Though it is difficlt to tell.

     
  3-May-13, 16:46   #14
  +1 
SuperNoob 

Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 4873
i think j10 is better than q9
and those sayin 50-50 r a bit biased because they r comparing j10 vs q9, when they shud be doing (j10 vs his continuation range) vs (q9 vs his continuation range)

lets assume villain is very tight and his continuation range is only trips and two pair.

trips - 5 hands 1 jj, 1 1010, 3 22
two pair - 16 hands - 4 j10, 6 j2, 6 102

now equity for j10-
jj, 1010- 1-2%
22- 18%
j10- 50%
j2, 102- 90%

Equity for q9
Trips - 55%
2 pair - 60%

Now if u consider overall equity(weighted mean) vs his continuation range, its almost same for both j10 and q9 (almost 58%)

But given the situation - 0.6 rebuy game, pot, initial bet etc i think his range is gonna be wider.
And for most of hand beyond trips/two pair j10 is around 15% ahead per hand compared to q9.

e.g.- overpair 15 hands - 6 AA, 6Kk, 3QQ.--j10 is 74% vs 60% for q9
So J10 >q9

*some1 plz check %, i didnt use equity calculator

Edited by SuperNoob (Friday, May 03, 2013 @ 16:51 GMT)


     
  3-May-13, 17:03   #15
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by SuperNoob:
*some1 plz check %, i didnt use equity calculator

I think you'll be hard pressed to find someone doing a more thorough job of it, than you do...

Welcome back man! Thumbs Up

     
  6-May-13, 01:49   #16
  0 
Plexo 
Joined: Aug '09
Location: Chile
Age: 30 (M)
Posts: 1336
Wow really interesting spot.
I think the whole point here is to know where you are behind or ahead at the time of all-in, or if you are likely to be behind with two pairs on the turn.

Althoug initially I would have discard j10, after thinking I think I would discard Q9. This bacause I balieve is very unlikely that he/she has trips, which will be the only hand that let us behind on the flop.

I think it is more likely that he also had suited hands (spade obviously) like AKs,A10s, or KQo maybe, which make some of our outs with Q9 useless. That is why I think I would discard Q9s.

Anyway a very thought decision. It is good that ended up well for you.

good luck!


     
  6-May-13, 07:31   #17
  0 
pokkerimees 
Joined: Oct '08
Location: Estonia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 384
very temting is to draw, but i think actually i would go all in with 2 pairs instead go all inn with draw
i dont know the math of poker, but for me feels like gambling to throw away top 2 and draw

     
  6-May-13, 08:00   #18
  0 
karmie 
Joined: Dec '09
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 27 (M)
Posts: 8
at first glance it looks like a tough spot but honestly it is not really - as its a single raised pot the only real sets you are concerned about are 22 as your blocking most JJ and TT so 5 combos total of hands your behind on the flop vs spades; KJ; AJ; KQ; QQ(??) amongst other spazz hands. by ditching your JT and keeping Q9 you are a slight dog to even A2s / K2s and only marginally ahead of TPTK on this board.

just keep in mind when playing non nut flush draws aggressively in any variant of this game how dead you are when you get it in vs a higher flush draw and have at best ~6 outs or <25% if getting it in on the flop. just as an example even on this flop in question (2cJs10s) KQss is still losing to A2ss (45% equity) and only a SLIGHT favourite over A2o (51%) Ridiculous how a potential 20+ out hand is a dog to just ace high Big Smile

Edited by karmie (Monday, May 06, 2013 @ 08:08 GMT)


     
  6-May-13, 08:22   #19
  0 
damosk 
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 52 (M)
Posts: 4873
Having played and won a few quid playing Irish...I would have gone with what for me at that time was a winning hand and kept the 10 and J, giving me two pair...discarding the draw possibilities...even though they might win in the end as a better hand. You then have the option of a full house coming down the line.

     
  14-May-13, 09:19   #20
  0 
MichaelGotKK 
Joined: Apr '13
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 35
Its a tough one but I would have gotten rid of the Q9s for the simple for the reason you don't know if the flush draw is live, your opponent may have Ax or Kx of spades. So that would reduce your equity a good amount. Your opponent could be drawing, so going all in with 2 pair is good IMO. Even if he hits his straight or flush you could hit a full house.

     
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