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  1-Dec-14, 23:55   #1
Running hot on NL4 0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
This time last year I promoted myself from playing only freerolls, to playing cash games.
I was playing NL2 until august, which was working out well, so I decided to go for NL4 on Party Poker.

Doubling the stakes, I was hoping that my winrate would not drop below half of that on NL2.
I am however delighted with the result, of almost tripling my bb/100 winrate, thus almost increasing the rate at which I make money by a factor of 6...

These are my stats (I'm single tabling everything):
NL2: 20103 hands at 11.1 bb/100
NL4: 30388 hands at 30.3 bb/100
Current PTR rating: 70 (on poker table ratings .com)

Maybe 30000 hands are not enough to draw conclusions, but 30 bb/100 seems incredibly high (even for single tabling), and if you look at my graph, you'll see I'm running quite a bit below all-in EV (about 10% below what it should be).

I'm posting this, partly because I wanted to share this experience, and partly because have have trouble convincing myself I should move up stakes quicker than I do. Am I too careful, and should I be making more money, by playing at higher stakes? How much time/hands did you take before successfully moving up stakes?

N.B. the first graph shows all my NL4 results, the second graph is my complete Party Poker history (NL2 + NL4).

Edited by marqis (Monday, December 01, 2014 @ 23:59 GMT)

Attached Imagessshot-698.png sshot-699.png

     
  2-Dec-14, 02:51   #2
  0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
Close shop, close account and book your tickets to the Bahamas. Agree

But with a serious face - I think you should remain playing on a level until you gain enough confidence where you shouldn't put it up for debate the whole moving up thing. The fact that we are here talking about this shows that you arent ready yet IMO.

BTW, very nice stats, congrats.
Over time your winrate on this level will narrow down as well, but that is natural.

     
  2-Dec-14, 12:20   #3
  0 
marqis 

Joined: Sep '10
Location: Netherlands
Age: 48 (M)
Posts: 1631
Posted by bowie1984:
I think you should remain playing on a level until you gain enough confidence where you shouldn't put it up for debate the whole moving up thing. The fact that we are here talking about this shows that you arent ready yet IMO.

Fair point. I did at one point lose 6 buyins in a single session at NL4, that shook my confidence a bit. This would sound a lot worse on NL10 ($60 vs $24).
Also I never had a downswing ,so that is bound to happen sometime (I don't think the -6 BI session qualifies, as I won $18 back the next day)...

On the other hand, I really had to force myself to move from NL2 to NL4; I'm just not much of a gambler/risk taker I suppose...

     
  2-Dec-14, 22:23   #4
  0 
bowie1984 

Joined: Apr '12
Location: Hungary
Age: 32 (M)
Posts: 4685
If you have to force yourself then its absolutely not worth it IMO. Hobby players don't need to prove anything to anybody - this is just a hobbyfor us. Play where and when you are comfortable and always remain within your budget. Maybe over time your confidence will grow more and you could try having poker as a side income, until then just play your best and enjoy the fruits from it - on any level where you may go.

     
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