Joined: Oct '08
Location: United States
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 10
Hi guys, first post even though I registered a long time ago. I cracked the safe on new years and decided to degen it up by putting the points in the draw and won that too. So I feel I need to contribute a little. Here is a hand on the exact bubble of a step 5.
********** # 59 ************** PokerStars Game #56992992540: Tournament #360076091, $670+$30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2011/02/02 12:32:13 CT [2011/02/02 13:32:13 ET] Table '360076091 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 1: villian 2(2295 in chips) Seat 8: villian 1 (1640 in chips) Seat 9: Hero (9565 in chips) Hero: posts small blind 100 Villian 2: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to arkstfan Qs Qh
Villian 1: raises 1440 to 1640 and is all-in
Villian 1 is running a 20/16 over 59 hands and has stolen from the button 3/8 times.
I didn't really think about it at the time because I had a decent amount of mtts open. Obviously our options are call or fold. What do you think I should do?
Joined: Jan '08
Location: Denmark
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 481
It really depends on hit betting pattern, how did he steal the blinds before? Did this all in differ from his other bets when he stole the blinds? Or did he just raise preflop and everyone fold? I think i would snap call if he stole blinds with all in everytime. If he changed his betting pattern i might think again, but i would be very tempted to call. I dont know if its just me, but if he keep steal blinds and you all fold and if he had AA or KK he would probally want to get a little profit and not try to bet you out. But hey, im not pro so dont listen to me. just my oppinion
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United States
Age: 46 (M)
Posts: 1
Hard to say based on little info but I think I would call. Good possibility this is short stack desparation IMO. The again I havent reached a large enough bankroll to buy-in to such a tourney LOL.
Joined: Oct '08
Location: United States
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 10
Well I did call pretty quickly and he flipped over K5s which is well within what I thought his range was. He flopped two pair and I turned a set and faded a king. GG.
First let me say this, either option is somewhat acceptable in my mind, even after I thought about this hand in depth. Fold is technically correct and will save you money in the long run and here is why.
Before the hand lets look at icm
Hero 9565.00 chips and $2036.61 of the max $2100 in Equity. Villian 1 has 1640 chips and $1347.00 Equity Villian 2 has 2295 in chips and $1516.29 Equity
You can calculate this yourself if you want to **link removed, violation of our forum rules**
If you call you will either win or lose
Yes I gain $63.39 in equity if I call and win. But Villain two gains an astronomical $583.71.
If I call and lose here I lose $78.36 in equity and I go from a 99.6 % fav to 90% fav to move on to step 6 and lose my dominating chip lead.
If he showed me his hand pf I fold. If I thought about it for a min or so in game I would have folded. Pokerstove his range and I was suprised that even against 60% of hands which is way more than he should shove in this situation, QQ is only a 75% favorite.
Yes It feels dumb folding QQ 3 handed to a ~8 bb shove but it is correct. The only person that significantly gains from our gamble is Villian 2. Nobody wants to gamble with us, they are basically playing against each other at this point and the only thing that changes that is if we gamble. Honestly Villian 1 should fold and let me shove on Villian 2 but as played this should be a fold.
Edited by Administrator (08 February 2011 @ 07:35 GMT)
Joined: May '09
Location: Croatia
Age: 39 (M)
Posts: 20507
well depends how he play from start,then you can know will you pay on that or not!if he play slow and wait for good hand,then maybe you can fold,but if he is aggressive then you should call,beacuse maybe he bet hands before on everything!its easy to be smart for us,when he werent in your postion!its different when you need to decide what to do!
Joined: Nov '09
Location: Poland
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 1189
You are chipleader.... 9k... it's always snap calll... you can never fold here! 3 handed he can push there nearly any hand... he is shortest stack on table and blinds are going on him in next hand.... he will push there 60%+ of his range there. And also Steps 2 players advance right? So because of that it's even easier call cause u can get the oponent out. To what hand you want to w8 to play if you fold 3rd best hand? And dunno what you have counted there.... K5 vs QQ? You need to write there a range... Download Poker Stove and u will see it's no brainer call always.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
This is a good thread and post arkstfan - but you need to remove the link in your post as it's against forum rules.
Your ICM breakdown is very good. It's hard to run that in your head in real time though.. I'm pretty sure I would have called - I really wouldn't be expecting KK/AA here - as some other muppet said - just cause it's $640 doesn't mean your villains suddenly starts flipping AA on their steals lol. If anything, it's probably less likely someone open shoves AA/KK @ this stake.
Joined: Oct '08
Location: United States
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 10
Jess I would remove the link but I do not see an edit button. I am in no way advertising that site, just happened to pick it randomly. If a mod could do that I would appreciate it. (I know have an edit button just not for that post)
Zmx being a chipleader means i should be less prone to gamble. In a mtt I expect close to 100% to shove from the button in this situation, but not in a step, and that is why I thought 60% is generous. Let's say for the sake of argument I know for a fact he is shoving 100 percent. I am a 5 to 1 favorite against that range. Why call it off and force myself to dodge outs if I do not have to. I know I am going to be folding the best hand alot here but I am not really going to be playing anything. What I am waiting for is for them to gamble.
This is exploitable only if they know I am folding every hand no matter what and they decide to effectively begin to blind me off which I will realize pretty quickly and counter by putting pressure on them in a similar fashion by which they will be put in the position I was.
Except they are going to be calling off their stack instead of pushing it on the exact bubble which most players will not be prone to doing light by any means. They will most likely even fold A-rag against a steal where they normally would never do so. That is why I wait. They will gamble soon and I feel the need to take action then I will at a better time.
Not only do I not expect some of players to realize this, I expect to get some walks from weaker players BvB because they see my stack and realize that they are competing against the other shorty. A really good player would shove every hand against me knowing I should fold any hand but as discussed I would not counter it until necessary as they will be butting heads regardless of me. They will get it in on their own really soon much of the time. And if some reason it becomes necessary to gamble I will do so.
Lemme give you another hand ZMX and ask you what you would do. Villian 1-1640 chips open shoves his button Villian 2-2295 calls Hero BB 9565 AA?
That I would be able to fold pretty easily even multitabling.I definitely think there is nothing no brainer about any of these bubble situations as they can be very difficult and unorthodox to play.
Oh and yes Top 2 advance to Step 6, 3rd repeats step 5.
I think the most telling thing is I am a 99.6 percent favorite to advance. Why risk lowering that to 90 if I call and lose knowing that they are both incredibly short?
Joined: Oct '09
Location: Lithuania
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 2805
i ll call it becouse i am donkey and love to play agressive so sometimes u loose but u must call becouse its 3 -rd strongest hand before seeing the flop good luck all and have fun
Joined: Oct '10
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 66
I would call. villian is about to have less than 10 bb but what make me think he has a a good hand is that the other villian have close to 5bb. He can just wait till the other villiant make his all-in but not, he acts before him. But... even if he has an AK, u are good with ur QQ. I would call.
