Joined: Oct '09
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 57 (M)
Posts: 667
Thank you Jess. I have read about variance from different sources and have an (my) understanding of it. I agree with you that some will read it and not understand it, some will not bother to read it.
All I really know is that when I sit down at a table I am fighting two people, my on table opponents and that damn invisible variance.
Joined: May '08
Location: Netherlands
Age: 53 (M)
Posts: 6197
Very good post +1
Its very very hard as a beginner poker player to understand the basics of variance. I had times in the past that i was thinking ''this cant be true, how bad can i run????'' Also had times with ''OMG can i be more lucky'' for weeks.
Basicly Misses Variance sucks big time, just accept it and be very yentle to her, maybe next day she will reward you....
But thats the whole point it didnt go over my head and i see through your bull.
Now again why do these sites not test for expected outcome (long number probability) If these deals were honest then at least one site would do this to gain further credibility.
Now then forget your silly programs and show some long number testing of expected outcome or are you yet again going to ignore the fact that this is the only true test of a straight deal and print further smoke screens.
Joined: Dec '09
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 2087
may i ask why you even joined this site, even your name is online joke so really wtf is the point of even being here? do you just like a pointless argument or what
thats it avoid the point to hand. I want a fair and proper deal so i can play some poker instead of this bingo.
I want long number probability tests to bring about an honest deal. Why do you attack when I fight for a just cause, Do you enjoy being cheated by these deals.
Joined: Dec '09
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 42 (M)
Posts: 2087
Posted by Doberhain:
Do you enjoy being cheated by these deals.
By reading the quotes of some guys here, I suppose you hit the point.
but its only you guys that think your getting cheated, I dont feel im being cheated its you that does and you still play on these so called online joke sites.
i just think it makes no sense if what your saying is true why is there so many winners. Also i know a few people who are online pros are you saying they have just been chosen from the poker sites they play on? Also if thats true how lucky are they they get this gift from different sites they play on or are you saying they have some super donk skills they still win when its rigged.
Whats about all the other reasons that everyone else have gave you about real facts that people have really tested but aahh f**k it you will just keep talking crap so no point in replies here at all really
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Australia
Age: 40 (M)
Posts: 6483
Posted by onlinejoke: But thats the whole point it didnt go over my head and i see through your bull.
yes clearly because you don't understand it; it's all bull. That must be it.
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Posted by Flippedchips:
but aahh f**k it you will just keep talking crap so no point in replies here at all really
Yeah this is the unfortunate truth. But just like debating religious nut-jobs; IMO somebody has to do it - otherwise THIS is the exposure that get's out there to people who aren't sure either way.
Somebody has to present a voice of reason- otherwise all that casual viewers get is a sea of insane BS.
Yeah this is the unfortunate truth. But just like debating religious nut-jobs; IMO somebody has to do it - otherwise THIS is the exposure that get's out there to people who aren't sure either way.
Somebody has to present a voice of reason- otherwise all that casual viewers get is a sea of insane BS.
You talk out your asreee time after time posting opinions and stats????????????
Its fkin poker governed by probability so wheres your fkin facts, I gave you proof onlines sites cheat the deals did you check it out? No
I asked you why the rules allow them to manipulate the deals did you answer, No
I asked you why every single site avoids tests that would prove or disprove reflection of a real deal, Did you answer no You just print crap and are prob paid to do this to keep up the bul for the online poker world as is done is most forums.
Facts facts facts. A test of long number probability will resolve all why are online sites so frightened to do this/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ POST from Flippedchips
but its only you guys that think your getting cheated, I dont feel im being cheated its you that does and you still play on these so called online joke sites.
i just think it makes no sense if what your saying is true why is there so many winners. Also i know a few people who are online pros are you saying they have just been chosen from the poker sites they play on? Also if thats true how lucky are they they get this gift from different sites they play on or are you saying they have some super donk skills they still win when its rigged.
Whats about all the other reasons that everyone else have gave you about real facts that people have really tested but aahh f**k it you will just keep talking crap so no point in replies here at all really ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REPLY I don't play online poker any more and I was in fact a winner( poker stars) but online poker was affecting my live play badly due to the massive differences in variance live to online.
Also to rig the deals online makes a huge difference to the amount of rake extracted if the mug gets lucky with his $100 and gets his money back he is then gona get fked by the rake again and again. Yes he will lose long term but by god does he pay a huge amount of rake.
About 5% of players turn a long term profit after rake and some top pros like isildur11 only make 1% profit minus rake an actual lose.
Maybe he cant play ah facts facts facts simple long number probability testing will solve all but the on line sites wont do this.
Joined: May '09
Location: India
Age: 37 (M)
Posts: 4873
Posted by Flippedchips: may i ask why you even joined this site, even your name is online joke so really wtf is the point of even being here? do you just like a pointless argument or what
Joined: Mar '11
Location: Germany
Age: 54 (M)
Posts: 217
Whats about all the other reasons that everyone else have gave you about real facts
I consider them in building my opinion and I learned alot new things. This thread gave me something to think about. Nevertheless I will keep watching any interesting and helpful, serious discussion about it all. So what did you want to implie with your quote?
There are days for a big win and days better not to play. But that doesn´t include any truth about, if all affairs concerning online poker are on a fair level or not. So to keep eyes open is helpful not to go bankrupt, too.
Joined: Apr '09
Location: Portugal
Age: 44 (M)
Posts: 4827
This is very interesting. I dont know if my maths knowledge let me understand all of what you just wanted to show, but no doubt maths is in this game as in any cards game. I remember playing spades with some friends, in a team way 2 for 2, and there were some teams who win more than others, although we were all in the same level of skill to the game. That fact wasnt just about the luck they had of having better cards in the hand and understading each others hands better because of signs they use (everyone use signs and tricks in this game), it had to do with the way they played, which was better than the others, and people was watched the game from outside, viewing every players cards, knew they won because they played better, they chose the best time to play each card, what would lead them to winning.
Joined: Apr '11
Location: Romania
Age: 35 (M)
Posts: 6669
Of course that the math is right in this article but there is another major thing that make someone a sucesuful poker player and another one just a mediocre player that wins a bit and the loses more. It's not just about the math and variance. Volume is not the only think you need to progress, you also need to improve your game every day. You can do this by learning new things about poker everyday. You can read books, coaching sessions or even videos are excellent to motivate you to become better and move up on limits. There are very good players that enter in a grind - tilt state where they win good but they don't really progress and move up in limits. You also need to take brakes from play from times to times, it really helps.
Joined: Feb '11
Location: Slovenia
Age: 33 (M)
Posts: 109
All hail OP!
Thought i'd bump this thread as it is an exciting topic to think about - and it might encourage some to improve, being evident things can go very bad!!
I'm a believer in math behind poker, and volume really has a lot to do with cards falling 'right', but as was said before, you can't only grind out your downswing. You need to ask yourself what went wrong on your part.
You really can't always blame it on variance, downswing, etc. It's you who dictates how much money youre willing to lose in a particular spot. And we all no there's almost no identical situation in poker.
Only thing I wonder is this - in the ancient times, before online poker. How did people percieve "variance" then? Also, is it possible one encountered a big downswing, even though being profiatble, but just didn't have enough time in a lifetime to 'ride it out' ? (i mean there only so many times you get AA playing live)
