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Poker: a skill game?

Tags: ben van der genugten, dutch proferssor, poker skill.
Posted on 08 October 2008 by "T".

After a court decision back in 1998 the exclusive rights to offer poker within the country to Holland casino has been granted because it has been seen as a game of luck.

The Dutch professor Ben Van der Genugten from University of Tilburg has criticized this decision for long and decided to investigate whether poker is a game of luck or not. To his help he had Peter Borm, a professor of mathematics and game theory.

Their conclusion is that poker is a skill game considering that the difference in performance between an optimum player and a beginner is big and that the learning factor and result in poker plays an important role compared to other games which have the skill rating of zero.

This is the formula they used when coming to this conclusion.

Skill = Learning Effect / (Learning Effect + Chance Effect)

Poker measures 0.4 of skill according to their scale. Black Jack and other games are far behind this skill level using their formula.


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47 comments on "Poker: a skill game?"

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» Poker: a skill game?


 MANUEDO17/10/2008 16:16:44 GMT
Sardoso,

per me la fortuna c'entra fino ad un certo punto.. chiaro che di fronte ad una bad beat hai poco da fare ma se riesci ad avere una certa padronanza del gioco alla lunga vinci.. Big Smile

As for me luck is not essntial.. of course when you have to face a bad beat you have no chance but in a long term if you have strong skills win Spade Club Heart Diamond
 Calmplay18/10/2008 10:24:55 GMT
Posted by doomdy:
80% skill 20% luck Blink


I can't agree, I will say 60 / 40 or vice versa " 40% skill 60% luck, you need a lot of luck when blinds are huge as it's mostly there the best players are beaten not at the start of the game.
 shokaku18/10/2008 11:14:47 GMT
Posted by Calmplay:
Posted by doomdy:
80% skill 20% luck Blink


I can't agree, I will say 60 / 40 or vice versa " 40% skill 60% luck, you need a lot of luck when blinds are huge as it's mostly there the best players are beaten not at the start of the game.


Gentlemen. Poker is 100 percent skill and 100 percent luck. Big Smile
 GamblinDemon18/10/2008 17:28:51 GMT
In the long therm no luck is needed.
Skills required: Patience, a perfect bankroll menagement policy, discipline and of course, skill at playing. That's all
 Kenboiols18/10/2008 23:25:10 GMT
skill definetly. if it was mostly luck then nobody could ever be making a living of poker.
 shokaku19/10/2008 13:51:38 GMT
Posted by Kenboiols:
skill definetly. if it was mostly luck then nobody could ever be making a living of poker.


What?

Just think of Jamie Gold! You did not want to tell us, that he has won the main event because of his skill? Being on a heater during one huge tourney is enough to end up a lifetime winner.
 Vinyull20/04/2009 12:41:28 GMT
90% skill 10% luck on a long time
 Dellbo9920/04/2009 15:41:31 GMT
Posted by shokaku:
Posted by Kenboiols:
skill definetly. if it was mostly luck then nobody could ever be making a living of poker.


What?

Just think of Jamie Gold! You did not want to tell us, that he has won the main event because of his skill? Being on a heater during one huge tourney is enough to end up a lifetime winner.



This is the only time where luck plays a factor. When you get you luck in a big torney like Gold did it can make up for a lifetime of bad beats but for the rest of us the rest of the time luck has no relevance to winning long term.

Jamie Gold is not as talentless as most seem to think. Phil Ivey he isn't but he anit a donk either.
 lomax20/04/2009 16:04:15 GMT
oh i think that luck is a most important component of poker but not only. In all game the lucky have a great influence and also in the life (as our single decision). So good luck to all Blink
 smac111120/04/2009 16:37:20 GMT
when playing a tourney a combination of luck and skill is needed to win . if there is 1000 players in a tourney and you are having a day when you can hit nothing no amount of skill will get you to the final tables . i have played live games with friends of mine and beat them constantly but online they have a better record than me in the bigger tourneys due to the fall of the cards . somethings we have no control over
 Dellbo9920/04/2009 16:47:11 GMT
Posted by smac1111:
when playing a tourney a combination of luck and skill is needed to win . if there is 1000 players in a tourney and you are having a day when you can hit nothing no amount of skill will get you to the final tables . i have played live games with friends of mine and beat them constantly but online they have a better record than me in the bigger tourneys due to the fall of the cards . somethings we have no control over


Your probably a better live player than them and they're probably a better online player than you.

No real mystery or luck factor involved.
 JunkyMonkey20/04/2009 17:01:56 GMT
It's 80% skill 20% bad luck to me at the moment...
I take a break, lost too much (because of bad beats).
 EimsbushKing20/04/2009 19:33:01 GMT
it´s both

you need skill everybody know this

but you need some luck too (hit your flush,hit the straight,win an all in with AQ vs AK)


the game is all about the mix of skill and luck

i mean if no luck would be involved
somebody would be the best and win every mainevent and every ept
so there have to be luck involved

but i think it´s 75%skill 24%luck1%sick shit ( AAAA vs.royal flush....)




pokerPLAYER

not a

pokerGAMBLER
 ViperX20/04/2009 22:08:11 GMT
It's mostly about the skill but I have no doubts that some luck factor is also involved. Blink
 Queens4All20/04/2009 22:31:11 GMT
After the past few days... I have to answer that is 60% luck and 40% skill? And why?? Because i was out of 3 tornments in two with AA making a progressive bet and other with a KK also a progressive bet, and they have luck only in the river... A normal person already had fold.... but a lucky guy always see the river and get the river. It is impossible to call 4 big raises with nothing and win with luck on the river. That isn't poker, is lotery and poker in the past days is showing to me that we need more luck than skills.
In a good day with luck and a bit of skills, sure i know that i will gonna be near the final table, but without the luck forget it. Angry
 Whiskerer20/04/2009 23:21:28 GMT
You can't really meassure it that way, it all depends on how long a time frame you are looking at, if it is a single hand there might be 40 % luck, but the longer you keep playing the luck factor will slowly be making it's way to 0.
 Vinyull21/04/2009 08:59:42 GMT
it absolutely a skill game - а long time. But every day is loto
 RUMMYROYAL21/04/2009 09:01:39 GMT
I think the difference between online poker and offline is very essential when examining the luck vs. skill factor. Offline poker is much more about skill and involves face reading, acting, and much more psychology and dynamics between players. Online poker lacks some of these factors and therefore is very much dependent on luck rather than skill.
 MrMan21/04/2009 09:06:55 GMT
to quote someone, but don't remember the name.

In a singel hand it is 99% luck and 1% skill, in a pokerlifetime it is 99% skill and 1% luck.
 B1gfoot21/04/2009 09:13:55 GMT
Posted by RUMMYROYAL:
I think the difference between online poker and offline is very essential when examining the luck vs. skill factor. Offline poker is much more about skill and involves face reading, acting, and much more psychology and dynamics between players. Online poker lacks some of these factors and therefore is very much dependent on luck rather than skill.

Gotta agree, but if you look at all the players coming through now they are going from on-line players to live players, the "on line luck" factor is taken from them and most still succed so id say its still all round down to skill, more math on line but more players of diffren levels so luck factor is higher but in the long run luck will not prevaile. So in conclusion it would depend on what you call skill. Its a bit yin and yan.
 hum11121/04/2009 13:41:33 GMT
mb online is also skill game like offline, but are you sure, that in all rooms "random" is fair ?
 pooya01/01/2014 10:25:50 GMT
ofc it is , poker is highly brain and skill game
 jomull5702/01/2014 09:40:52 GMT
its the same as most things the more you play the better you get and improve your skill you just dont get luckier at the game same as sport football f1 snooker pool 99% skill but there will always be luck in anything we do
 doubletop77702/01/2014 10:43:56 GMT
There is no doubt in my mind that poker is a game of skill but you always need a slice of luck to run alongside the skill. The amount of the same people you see running deep in the big tournaments just proves that skill is paramount to success
 gibby4567802/01/2014 13:42:51 GMT
Your so wrong you will be more successful in the long run if you have a good strategy, starting hands etc. Not the other way about Duh!!

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