Joined: Aug '14
Location: Germany
Age: 43 (M)
Posts: 766
Recently I have complained, that I did not have any luck with the calender and the safe in this year. Just forget about it, because I have just won 1.000 Mob points with the very last door of my calender for today - yes!
Posted by bowie1984: If you bought those shots and you spent 2k points to get 400 shots (twice!!!) and you are using close to 800 to win 4k or 5k then you are loosing money - for this much amount you would be better of buying tickets for the draw. If you won 800-1000 worth of free shots during a whole year opening calendar doors, then using them all up for just one try didn't make the wait worth it IMO. Again, if you cannot crack this - let's say out of 250 shots then u should just give up and wait for the next time the prize goes near 5k, otherwise it's not a good payout/return on your investment (wether that investment was mob points or just patience for collect enough shots from the calendar).
If you have 800 shots, you should use them all at once, only stopping when you've cracked it. This has a 20% chance of failure. If you only try say 400 on 2 different days, you'd have a 60% chance of failure 2 times => 0.6*0.6 = 36% chance of failure... That is far worse...
If you do 100 shots on 8 different days => 0.9^8 = 43% chance of failure...
Always use all your shots, until you crack it (whichever comes first).
(All assuming no one else cracks it while you are entering the combinations, and all tries are for the same amount).
I do agree you should not overspend buying shots though...
Joined: Mar '12
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 45 (F)
Posts: 2261
I think if you win all your safe shots I think doing 800 in one go makes more sense as long as the safe is at a reasonable amount.I'm sure when I first joined BRM the safe use to get to $50 or $60 but these days rarely goes over $40.
Joined: Oct '14
Location: Serbia
Age: 34 (M)
Posts: 4358
Posted by klash23: I think if you win all your safe shots I think doing 800 in one go makes more sense as long as the safe is at a reasonable amount.I'm sure when I first joined BRM the safe use to get to $50 or $60 but these days rarely goes over $40.
In past 3,4 months or even more BRM safe didnt reach above 40$.... It rarely goes to 40$ now...
Joined: Feb '11
Location: United Kingdom
Age: 59 (M)
Posts: 5712
I won another 50 mob shots last night and once again I was useless at trying to identify the naughty ladies secret pass code......... It's got a yummy $40 in her at the moment so it will be a nice win for whomsoever can crack the lady...good luck to all who give her a go!
I didn't argue about the math part on these things which of course is correct as you wrote it marqis - I was arguing on that either you overspend or overwait for get above 4-500 shots to crack the safe and from a theoretical standpoint none of that will worth it if you blew all of it at once.
Joined: Jan '13
Location: Philippines
Age: 57 (F)
Posts: 857
the vault box at bankrollmob is getting higher up to fourty dollars up.i need to buy some mob shot today and hope to get lucky on a fourtydollar bonus .never won this before and its almost 4 years now imagine.....
Joined: Aug '12
Location: Slovakia
Age: 36 (M)
Posts: 688
Actually I think mobsafe was easily exploitable and you could actually make easy money 1 or 2 years ago when prizes went higher than 40$ pretty often. Now its not worth.
Lets do a little math.
You can use 800 shots at once. 800 shots will cost you 40$ (but you will not need to spend 800 shots everytime, it will be 500 shots in average) and you will crack safe 80% of the times, so you will crack it 4 out of 5 times. And one time you will lose 40$. If the prize was reasonable high (40$ or more) you can be profitable on mobsafe in long run almost with 100% certainty.
Simply because You have 1000 possibilities in mobsafe. That means in long run you will spend 500 shots on average to crack the safe in 80% tries and will not crack safe in 20% tries.
500 shots = 25$. If the prize was always 50$ you could make: 25$ x 4 - 40$ = 60$ : 5 = 12$ for every crack of pure profit. - 25$ cause prize 50$ MINUS equivalent of 500 spent shots 25$ - x4 cause you will crack safe 4 out of 5 times (80%) - -40$ cause you will not crack safe 1 out of 5 times, and it will cost you 800 shots (40$) - :5 cause we count it on 5 times I hope its clear enough
If the prize was always 40$ you could make: 15$ x 4 - 40$ = 20$ : 5 = 4$ for every crack. Still profitable but not worth
If the prize was always 30$ you could make: 5$ x 4 - 40$ = -20$ :5 = -4$ for every crack. Prize isnt too high to be profitable in long run
This is what I was talking about. The safe barely goes near or above $40 nowadays therefore buying shots is a waste - you only could go truly +EV if you win those shots for free by opening calendar windows. By the time you win 3-400 tries worth of shot - which putting into perpective by the 800/day rule is giving you a chance very far from evens to actually crack this thing - you missed your once a day free shot at least 200-250 times if not more. And you still not guaranteed anything nor won anything. This why I love the draw more.
